Monsoon update: If the forecast of the Meteorological Department is proved correct, then this time the arrival of the monsoon will arrive at the time since 2009, at that time it reached Kerala on 23 May. From the perspective of early arrival of monsoon, it is very important for India’s agricultural sector to come on time, which depends on huge amount of rainfall for sowing of crops. Additionally, the monsoon plays an important role in filling reservoirs across the country, ensuring adequate supply for drinking water and hydroelectric production.
According to the Meteorological Department, the monsoon return phase usually begins in September and is completed by mid -October. The department had earlier estimated the onset date of the monsoon on 27 May, but now it has made it four to five days and earlier due to favorable atmospheric conditions.
The IMD had earlier estimated that India would have more cumulative rainfall than normal during this monsoon season, with no indication of El Nino effect that disrupts rain patterns. This is a positive sign for agricultural production and water availability. While Kerala is ready for the first rains of the weather, smooth monsoon progress is expected in the rest of the country, which will affect areas in the coming weeks.
This year, the monsoon can also come in Mumbai ahead of schedule, the Indian Meteorological Department has estimated its arrival in Maharashtra from 27 to 29 May. The forecast shared in early May suggests that the favorable air and pressure conditions may carry forward the south-west monsoon, which is traditionally expected in Mumbai around 10 June.
This monsoon is associated with premature arrival of El Nino, which is a climate pattern known to disrupt the monsoon cycle. With its low, sea temperature and atmospheric conditions are being formed to support timely and possibly strong monsoon on the west coast.
In recent years, there have been a lot of changes in the start of the monsoon in Mumbai. In a few years the monsoon came quickly or almost normally, while in other years – in 2019 and 2023 – it was delayed. In particular, in 2019, the monsoon came on 25 June, which came late in four decades.
The monsoon plays an important role in Mumbai’s ecosystem and economy. The entire water supply of the city, including reservoirs such as Tansa and Vihar, depends on time and adequate rainfall. Delay or low monsoon often causes water rationing and supply challenges.
As far as Uttar Pradesh is concerned, the delay and weak monsoon can worsen the situation in the whole of Uttar Pradesh. Districts like Jhansi and Prayagraj are meditating at 43 degrees Celsius, while Lucknow, Kanpur and Varanasi are getting scorching heat. According to the IMD report, moist winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have not been able to reach North India, causing cloudy sky, but it has not rained.
There is no expectation of rain for 5-7 days, so experts have warned to grow more heat. The possible low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal may provide relief by mid -June, but by then the residents should be prepared for fierce days and humid nights.
